Tourism and consumption maintained activity between July and September with a clear trend towards zero in the economy, with the hope that it will withstand the cut in energy prices to avoid recession.


The Spanish economy barely achieved a growth of 0.2% between July and September, backed by the recovery of tourism, well below the point and a half of the previous quarter but still positive, which is also backed by a historic decline in the Index of Consumer Prices in October to 7.3% (1.5 points less), two figures that drive away the ghost of stagflation and point to an autumn-winter that is going to be hard for Spanish families and companies, but without reach the catastrophic evolution that was predicted. The Government is confident that the GDP will grow by 4.4% this year, well above the European average, and the reduction in the tension in energy prices that began in October encourages us to think that, despite the downward trend of consumption and investment, a possible technical recession (two quarters below zero in GDP) would be postponed to next year.

The National Statistics Institute (INE) has published this Friday the data of the National Accounts for the third quarter of the year and the advanced evolution of the CPI for the month of October, which although they do not coincide exactly in time, they clearly reflect the trend of the Spanish economy and the clear threat posed by growth in decline or close to zero with inflationary pressure that is still maintained, although it is clearly trending downward.


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