The OECD forecasts a slowdown in the growth of large economies


The composite leading indicators (CLI) of the OECD, designed to anticipate turning points and economic fluctuations, point to a slowdown in growth in the OECD area and in most major economies. According to data for October, published this Wednesday, the CLI remain below trend in major OECD economies due to high inflation, rising interest rates and falling share prices.

Thus, the CLIs continue to anticipate the “loss of momentum” in the growth of United States, United Kingdom and Canadaas well as in the eurozone as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy. By contrast, in Japan, the CLI continues to point to stable growth. Among major emerging economies, CLI reflect “mixed” signals. China’s CLI shows signs of stabilization in October thanks to motor vehicle and steel production, although it remains below trend.

The OECD also appreciate similar signs in Brazil, where the CLI is driven by stock prices. On the other hand, the CLI for India points to that growth loses steam due to contractions in monetary indicators. The OECD CLIs are cyclical indicators based on a variety of forward-looking indicators, such as orders, building permits, confidence indicators, long-term interest rates and new car registrations. Given the uncertainties related to the impact of the war in Ukraineespecially in energy markets, the OECD warns that the components of the CLI could be subject to larger than usual fluctuations.


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