The INE forecasts that the economy will grow “around zero” in the third quarter
The growth of the Spanish economy will grow “around zero”this has been warned by the general director of Statistical Products of the National Institute of Statistics (INE), Alfredo Cristóbal, who has anticipated this forecast for the third quarter this Friday. “We had good growth in the second quarter (1.5%) and surely in the third quarter, which we will see in a few days, we will have a growth or decrease… around 0. We’ll be a little bit up, a little bit down“, he explained during the V Insurance Economic Meeting 2022, organized by Mutualidad de la Abogacía.
Although Statistics will be published next Friday, October 28, the advance of National Accounts for the third quarter, its general director of Statistical Products has advanced the range in which that estimate will move, which could even be negative. “The message is the same, but sometimes the sign scares“, Cristóbal has recognized. But in a context of high uncertainty, the expert has preferred not to venture to advance any forecast for the fourth quarter of the yearalthough he has recognized that most analysts indicate that the GDP will contract.
What is clear, according to Alfredo Cristóbal, is that next year’s economic growth is going to be “in terms much smaller than this year“And it is that, surely, in 2022 the GDP will end up around 4.5%, as reflected in most of the forecasts of national and international organizations, but next year the growth will be between 1% and the 2%.
Fall in inflation, albeit with “saw teeth”
Regarding inflation, Cristóbal has anticipated that the rate will continue to fall, “although it will have its saw teeth“, and “much lower” levels will be reached, although not those registered before the pandemic. This decrease will be due, in his opinion, to the effect of the cost containment that is being carried out and the increases in interest rates.
However, the general director of Statistical Products of the INE has warned that core inflation will take “much longer” to be reduced, which will require additional efforts. “The less good news is that the amount of ‘shock’ that has occurred has caused second-round effects,” he said.
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