Escrivá attributes the rise in employment with the weak GDP to the emergence of the underground economy
The emergence of the shadow economy from the coronavirus pandemic would not only be contributing to tax revenues on the way to a record year in our country -an increase that is also explained by the rise in inflation and the advance in activity in the first section of the exercise. According to the Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, José Luis Escrivá, this emergence of informal activity could also partly explain why employment continues to advance in Spain despite the fact that the economy would have stagnated already in the third quarter, according to the advanced data of National Accounts (the INE confirms a moderate advance of 0.2%).
During his speech at a conference organized by the Association of Economic Information Journalists (APIE) and when asked if the Spanish economy has lowered the level of potential growth necessary to create jobs, the head of Social Security stressed that affiliations advance above what the GDP is doing, which had not happened in any previous crisis in our country and it is not being appreciated in neighboring countries either, despite the fact that they are affected by the same shocks (high inflation, energy crisis or war in Ukraine, among others).
“Employment is four points above the pandemic level and GDP two points below”, stressed Escrivá, who has also stressed that it is normal for activity to grow more than employment. This situation is an “enigma” for the minister, on which some analysis would have to be carried out to try to arrive at an explanation. All in all, Escrivá has made it clear that he does not believe that the Spanish economy, after a pandemic, is a greater creator of aggregate employment than in the past. “I don’t quite understand why productivity has fallen,” he has settled.
Escrivá has valued the affiliation data for the month of October, which confirms the creation of 103,499 jobs in the tenth month of the year, according to data made public today by the Ministry itself. They are, from his point of view, “extraordinarily good” and collide head-on with the doomsday messages that, as he has said, have been repeated almost systematically since the war broke out in Ukraine.
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