Brussels warns of a break in winter and leaves growth at 1% in 2023

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The European Commission has cut its growth forecast for the Spanish economy next year by almost one point to 1%, from the 2.1% it forecast in the summer. The international context aggravated by the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis will put pressure on the countries of the euro zone, with some of the big economies unable to avoid recession. It will not be the case of Spain which, despite the fact that according to Brussels it could register a 0.3% drop in GDP in the fourth quarter of this year, it would stagnate between January and March of next year (it contemplates 0% growth) , so it would not chain the two consecutive quarters that imply incurring in a technical recession.

In its Autumn Forecasts, Brussels is more optimistic about the behavior of the Spanish economy this year than it was just a few months ago, in July. Thus, it foresees that the GDP will grow by 4.5% this year, compared to the 4% that it estimated in the summer. This implies that Spain will advance above the European Union average (3.3%) and above the euro zone average (3.2%). Subsequently, the economy would slow down next year to that 1%, which also represents a reduction in relation to the perspectives that the Government contemplated in its last macroeconomic table (where it estimated that the activity would advance to 2.1%).

With regard to inflation, the great economic beast against which the European Central Bank (ECB) is fighting and which the respective governments also have to tackle, Brussels projects that the rate will stand at 8.5% this year in Spain (four tenths above what was estimated in the summer), but lowered it to 4.8% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024.

Source: lainformacion.com

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